SHA involves long-term and current seismic hazard assessment.
Seismic zonation map for Armenia (scale 1: 50000) aiming at long-term assessment has been compiled. Current seismic hazard assessment is essential for population seismic safety and elaborating counter-measures by the central and local governments.
Earthquake prediction has two approaches: scientific and societal. Probability approach (not the deterministic which includes site, time and magnitude of earthquake) allows from the scientific point of view to use intermediate research results for population and state safety.
Armenian NSSP experience reveals that intermediate results involve the current seismic hazard assessment with the precision sufficient for advocating the counter-measures for population earthquake protection.
Current seismic hazard assessment in the RA enable the Armenia NSSP, the central and local governments to undertake the actions according the level of seismic hazard assessment evaluated by the Expert Counsel of the Armenian NSSP.
Basing on retrospective analysis of pre-, on and after seismic anomaly of the Armenian NSSP observation network, the expert system including DF and Expert software has been created.
DF program enables to outline short-term, medium-term and long-term seismogenic anomaly of various fields.
Expert program enables to determine the site, time and magnitude of current seismic hazard based on the Armenian NSSP clearing house.
Testing of seismic events occurred in the territory of Armenia and adjacent territories for current seismic hazard assessment has been performed.
Features of 11 major regional (M≥6.0) and 7 perceptible local (M≥3.7) earthquakes have been tested for the period of 1983-2002 based on retrospective data analysis.
The Catalogue of earthquake-tested precursors including 167-test anomaly-precursor with 15 parameters has been compiled. The probabilities of precursor seismic realization have been determined. The work has great operative and applied meaning. The every day tests are used in operational activities of Armenian NSSP, enabling operatively to assess current seismic hazard and proved the information to the Government for undertaking the necessary counter-measures.
Besides, earthquake testing enables to insure the quality of data obtained from the observation network.
Network informativness as well as the station sensitivity to seismic event preparing and determination of features of different type of precursors create the methodological base for upgrading and developing of the Armenian NSSP multi- parameter observation network.